Carbon curbing pledges under the Copenhagen Accord are likely to doom Earth to warming of 3 degrees Celsius or more, rather than the ideal 2 C,  analysis published by the journal Nature finds.

Researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) found the pledges to be “amazingly unambitious.”

If countries only reduce emissions by what they agreed to at Copenhagen, annual global emissions will rise by 10 to 20 percent above current levels, reaching the equivalent of 47.9-53.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) by 2020, PIK found.

“This would result in a greater than 50 percent chance that warming will exceed 3 C by 2100,” the group said in a press release. ”To be on track for meeting the ‘below 2 C’ climate target, global emissions of no more than 40 to 44 gigatonnes (billion tonnes) of CO2 equivalent have to be achieved by 2020.”

Warming of 3 C or more would have a huge effect on Earth’s climate system, possibly leading to more frequent drought, flood, storms and rising seas affecting millions of people, scientists have said.

Click here to see a list of countries’ commitments under the Copenhagen Accord.